Tanforan's In-Between Years: What Stays Standing, and What San Bruno Neighbors Were Promised During Construction

"Staff believes an aggressive schedule would be buildout in ten years, with a conservative schedule that the project is not built-out for more than twenty years." That sentence comes from the City of San Bruno's own October 20, 2026 staff report on the Tanforan redevelopment. It changes what the project means for people who live nearby. The renderings of glassy lab buildings and podium apartments show a place that could be two decades away. What San Bruno gets first, and for years, is a construction site wrapped around a Target, a movie theater and a path to BART.

The rules for those years are already written down, in the development agreement terms and the Final EIR's mitigation program. Here they are, read from a neighbor's point of view.

The project on paper, briefly

Alexandria Real Estate Equities and Strada Investment Group are proposing to turn the 44-acre mall next to San Bruno BART into a mixed-use district, as SF YIMBY reported on October 12. The programmed area calls for 1,014 homes, about 112,000 square feet of new and relocated retail, roughly 724,000 square feet of lab and office space, and a 35,000-square-foot amenity building. Two "flex zones" could add up to 500 more homes, depending on the market.

The developer would dedicate a two-acre site for affordable housing and partner with MidPen Housing. Staff say that site could hold about 200 homes.

None of this is approved. The City released the Final EIR and its Mitigation Monitoring and Reporting Program on October 5, 2026, and its notice states that the release is not a project approval.

Three structures stay standing

The staff report describes the first physical step. If the City Council approves the project, the developer would demolish the mall buildings except the ones being kept: Target, one parking structure next to Target, and the Cinema. Then it would grade the whole site and start building infrastructure. Staff expect that phase to take about two years.

The development agreement includes a matching term. Alexandria agrees to "retain the Target and Cinema and keep access to them during construction." Staff give the City's reason plainly: "the Target has many local shoppers and provides reliable sales tax revenue to support City services." The promise covers keeping the buildings and access to them. It does not promise uninterrupted store hours, and the parking question came up at the hearing.

Compare that list with what is still operating. A KRON4 report from March 3, 2026 named Target, Century Theatres, BJ's Restaurant & Brewhouse and Planet Fitness among the major tenants still open, and said no official mall-wide closure date had been set. Two of those four are in the buildings the plan keeps. The same report said Barnes & Noble would close its Tanforan store on May 2, 2026 because its lease was ending, and that JCPenney had closed permanently in 2025.

So if you shop at Tanforan, the plan keeps two places for the construction years: the Target and the theater, plus one garage to park in.

The walk to BART gets a promise, with fine print

For anyone who cuts through the mall to reach the San Bruno BART station, the most practical term in the agreement is this one. Alexandria agrees to keep temporary walking connections through the site, from the El Camino Real and Tanforan Way intersection to the BART station, at no cost to the City.

The staff report spells out the catch: "These paths may change over time as site work proceeds, and there may be limited closures." The connection itself is guaranteed. The exact route is not, and it may move as different parts of the site are cleared.

The finished project's street work would come later and run along the edges of the site. The Vesting Tentative Map proposes 10-foot sidewalks, bike paths and landscaping on El Camino Real, Sneath Lane and Huntington Avenue, along with intersection and signal changes and upgrades to water, sewer and storm drain lines. One utility job is tied to a firm milestone. The mitigation program requires extending a 30-inch sewer line in Sneath Lane from Seabiscuit Lane down to Huntington Avenue, about 1,022 feet, before the first new building receives its certificate of occupancy. If you drive Sneath Lane, that is a stretch of street work to expect before anyone moves in.

Quiet hours, as written

A demolition and grading phase lasting about two years means heavy equipment next to homes and the BART tracks. The Final EIR's Mitigation Monitoring and Reporting Program sets rules for work outside San Bruno's standard construction hours. Under measure NOI-1-A:

• Any work outside standard hours needs a City permit and a noise-control plan.
• Between 10 p.m. and 7 a.m., the plan has to reduce noise, where feasible, to 60 dBA measured at 100 feet.
• Listed controls include doing the noisiest work in the daytime, banning impact tools at night, limiting idling during off-hours to two minutes, reducing backup alarms, and routing concrete trucks away from homes outside daytime hours where possible.
• Neighbors get advance mailed or delivered notices describing the schedule and the type of work.
• An on-site construction liaison's name and phone number must appear on site signage and in the notices, with follow-up and corrective steps when complaints point to intrusive noise.

A second measure, NOI-1-B, requires a temporary sound barrier before any nighttime work within 500 feet of a home. The barrier material must weigh at least one pound per square foot and carry a sound transmission rating of STC 25 or better.

These provisions do not set separate hours or methods for pile driving. That gap is one reason the topic came up at the hearing.

Then, possibly, a long stretch of empty lots

After the site is graded, the order of construction is open. The staff report says it is "not known today what the timing or order of buildings will be." It expects homes and retail to start first and adds that "the market will play the deciding role." Alexandria plans to keep the office parcels and build them as it signs tenants. It would sell the other parcels to development partners.

That is where the buildout estimate, anywhere from 10 years to more than 20, comes in. Staff acknowledge that the timeline "raises the potential for vacant sites sitting unused." The answer in the agreement is interim uses. Alexandria will pursue temporary uses on vacant parcels, such as pop-up retail, open-space programming, public art, temporary parking and recreation, and each would go through administrative City review. The agreement's wording is "explore." Alexandria commits to looking for interim uses on lots that won't be built soon, partly "to reduce the negative aesthetics of vacant lots."

So for the middle of the project, the agreement describes intent more than specific commitments. What shows up on those lots will depend on later applications and City approvals.

What the commissioners asked about

The Planning Commission heard the project on October 20. According to Citizen Portal's coverage of the meeting, commissioners generally supported it but pushed on the construction years. They asked about interim uses, including a soccer field and shared parking. They asked about pile-driving noise near BART, how far ahead neighbors would hear about night work, keeping Target running and parked during construction, physically protected bike lanes, and on-site renewable energy. The same coverage notes questions about building heights under FAA flight limits and whether off-site street and utility upgrades were included.

Most of those questions line up with the open spots above. A soccer field is not one of the interim uses named in the staff report. The off-site package describes "bike paths" and does not specify protected lanes. The noise measures do not include pile-driving hours. All of these are still questions, not commitments.

Separate Citizen Portal coverage reported three public speakers in favor, citing transit access, affordable housing and construction jobs. Ken Chan of the Housing Leadership Council pointed to MidPen's proposed affordable housing.

Where the vote stands

The commission voted unanimously to continue the hearing to a special meeting on October 26 so the remaining materials could be published. The October 26 agenda then listed the item for another continuance. Here is the sequence so far, and what is projected after it:

1. October 5, 2026: Final EIR and mitigation program released.
2. October 20, 2026: First Planning Commission hearing, continued.
3. October 26, 2026: Item scheduled for continuance to November 5.
4. Thursday, November 5, 2026: Special Planning Commission meeting. The commission is set to consider recommending that the City Council certify the EIR, override the Airport Land Use Commission's finding of inconsistency, approve a General Plan amendment and zoning changes, conditionally approve the tentative map, and adopt the development agreement.
5. City Council: Hearing date to be set after a commission recommendation.
6. Around mid-2027, if approved: The final map could be recorded, with demolition and site preparation able to begin around the same time.

SF YIMBY reported construction in 2028 or 2029. That is a projection, not an approved schedule. The City posts agendas and documents on sanbruno.ca.gov, and the project application summary is at tanforanforsanbruno.com.

If you live near Sneath Lane, El Camino Real or Huntington Avenue and want to talk through what a decade of Tanforan construction could mean for your street, Daniel Choi follows each hearing and can walk you through the documents. Schedule a free consultation.